How Labour spends to save seats

Follow the money is a good way of getting to grips with politics. But to understand the Welsh Government’s policy decisions I suggest you follow the politics. Two big announcements last week underline my point.

The first was a decision by the Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board to keep consultant-led maternity provision in three north Wales hospitals – Ysbyty Glan Clwyd, Ysbyty Gwynedd and Wrexham Maelor. A report commissioned by the Board recommended that none of the maternity units should close. This follows months of uncertainty and massive campaigns across northern Wales reminiscent of our own campaign to sustain consultant-led maternity services at Withybush.

The Rhyl demonstration when 2,000 people protested

So why were the campaigns in north Wales successful while ours was not? Consultant-led maternity provision was moved from Withybush to Carmarthen in August 2014. As I say, follow the politics. The most vulnerable hospital in north Wales was undoubtedly Ysbyty Glan Clwyd situated in Bodelwyddan, a small community about four miles south of Rhyl. It also happens that the hospital is bang in the middle of the Vale of Clwyd constituency which, until this year’s general election, was a safe Labour seat.

But in the election Labour lost the seat to the Conservatives by just 237 votes, and undoubtedly the major issue in the campaign was the fate of consultant-led maternity services at Ysbyty Glan Clwyd. In February during the run-up to the election more than 2000 people in Rhyl demonstrated against the downgrading of the hospital. As in Pembrokeshire they were protesting against the prospect that mothers in labour would have to be ambulanced long distances for treatment, in their case to Bangor or Wrexham. Compared with the situation in Pembrokeshire those are relatively straightforward journeys, along the A55 north Wales dual carriageway.

Marching against the threatened downgrade

But, quite rightly, they were still unacceptable and the campaigners persuaded voters to register their opposition in the ballot box. Now another election is looming, for the National Assembly in May.  If a decision had been made to close consultant-led maternity services then, undoubtedly Labour was set to lose its Vale of Clwyd Assembly seat. In Pembrokeshire, of course, Labour has no seats to lose.

The other bid announcement last week was the distribution of the Welsh Government’s local authority funding grants.  What a surprise, therefore that it was Labour-run urban and city authorities across Wales that benefited most. Meanwhile, it was rural authorities that are run by other parties and independents that lost out. All authorities received a cut in their budgets but these ranged just 0.1 per cent for Cardiff to 4.1 per cent for Powys.

The average cut across Wales was 1.8 per cent. Pembrokeshire’s budget was cut by £157 million, or 2.8 per cent. Though largely a rural authority, neighbouring Carmarthenshire’s budget was cut by only 1 per cent. Why? Could it be that Carmarthenshire contains Llanelli, and that Labour-held seat is vulnerable to Plaid Cymru in next May’s election? Denbighshire which contains most of the Vale of Clwyd constituency and which again is largely a rural seat, had its budget cut by just 1.2 per cent. As I say, follow the politics.