The debate Carwyn could do without

 In the run-up to the Scottish independence referendum First Minister Carwyn Jones famously said that if the Scots were determined to get rid of Trident nuclear missiles from Holy Loch he’d be glad to welcome them to Milford Haven.

Of course, this was never a realistic option. Milford Haven has two of the largest LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminals in Europe and indeed the world, employing together with nearby oil refineries roughly 1,200 people. Milford Haven also houses a major port and tank farm which brings in about 25 per cent of the UK’s motor fuel. Establishing a nuclear military base there, next to one of the UK’s major sources of fuel and natural gas, would be impossible from a security point of view.

 

Carwyn Jones' welcome for Trident missiles in Milford Haven was never a realistic option

In 1963 the original report on the Polaris nuclear weapons system dismissed Milford Haven’s suitability for housing the UK’s nuclear deterrent on the basis of one oil refinery existing there. That was well before before the development of the LNG terminals, so the safety risk must now be even higher.

It’s reasonable to ask, therefore, why the First Minister said he’d welcome the transfer of Britain’s nuclear submarine fleet to Pembrokeshire. At the time he said they would bring thousands of high quality, well paid jobs. In reality he was directing a cheap shot at the SNP, one he must now be regretting, especially in the wake of last week’s Shadow Cabinet reshuffle.

How are the two things connected? At one level Jeremy Corbyn’s changes to his team at the New Year resulted in a complete mess. Heralded as a revenge reshuffle, against those who opposed him on the Syria bombing vote before Christmas, the changes he made were minimal, despite the resignations they provoked. As one seasoned observer said, it was a futile row about “people doing imaginary jobs in a government that will never exist.”

In one respect, however, and as has been much commented upon, Corbyn got his way. The removal of Maria Eagle as defence spokesman and her replacement by Corbyn’s fellow Islington MP Emily Thornberry, opened the way for Labour to change its policy on nuclear weapons. For Thornberry, unlike Eagle, is against the renewal of Trident nuclear submarines. Thornberry now joins fellow unilateralist Ken Livingston as co-chair of Labour’s defence review, signalling a change to Labour’s pro-nuclear policy.

All this is bad news for Carwyn Jones as he heads towards the Assembly elections in May. For the backcloth will be further Labour dissension and infighting at Westminster, with a Parliamentary vote on the renewal of Trident promising a deadly split in the party. Carwyn Jones who is pro-nuclear weapons will be on one side of the divide and Jeremy Corbyn on the other, with the Welsh Labour Party being driven further adrift from the party leadership at Westminster.

All this raises fundamental questions for the future of Labour in Wales. Some in its ranks, like Carwyn Jones himself, are anxious to emphasise Welsh Labour’s independence. They are following calls in Scotland for Labour to become a federal party with separate identities in each of the nations of the UK. However, the reality is that Welsh Labour still remains dependent on the UK Party for funding. This is a debate Carwyn Jones would prefer not to have until after the Assembly election on 5 May.