Pausing for thought

Only occasional lightening interrupts the ground war

Fighting an election campaign is like being involved in a skirmish on the edge of a battle in a wider war. You’re aware of your immediate surroundings, your friends on either side of you, and your opponents immediately ahead. But as to what is happening overall, who is winning and who is losing, you have little idea.

The circumstances of the present Assembly election only serve to underline this truth. In particular it is being overshadowed by another vote, little more than a month after 5 May – the EU referendum on 23 June. The broadcast news is full of it, giving little space for the Assembly election. UKIP is standing in the Preseli and Carmarthen West and South Pembokeshire constituencies for the first time in an Assembly election. No one believes they can win, but equally no one knows how well they will do and at whose expense.

Walking the streets on Plaid Cymru’s behalf I encounter the occasional UKIP supporter. They rail against what they see as the imposition of rule from Brussels. “Do you realise how much we’re paying them every week,” they demand. There’s no point my responding with a return question, ‘Do you appreciate how much they’re investing in Pembrokeshire, and how much our farmers depend on European subsidies and markets?” They’re just cross.

Media coverage is the air war in the election. Most of it comes from Cardiff or London and barely touches Pembrokeshire. It’s like distant rumblings of thunder with occasional flashes of lightening that momentarily light up the landscape. People are aware of it but don’t take a lot of notice.

Of real importance, however, is the ground war. This is the extent to which the parties can get their message across directly. Leaflets, posters and placards are their ammunition. Social media also count. But most important are the conversations. These have real impact and are capable of changing minds. The trouble is it’s not possible to talk to everybody.

On some occasions voters contact candidates directly. Most days I take a few calls. Standing in the centre of Fishguard I reached for my mobile phone. “I only have one question, what is your position on Trident missiles?” a woman asked. “I’m against them,” I answered. “They’re very expensive and I don’t see what they are defending us against. If you’re worried about defence it would be much better to spend some of the £100 billion or more you could save on conventional forces.”

I get e-mails as well. One asked me whether I had any background in science and engineering and my views on nuclear power. I wrote back that I couldn’t claim to be a scientist though as a journalist I was used to grappling with complex topics. On nuclear power I was conflicted. I could see it was a way of reducing carbon emissions and so was good for tackling climate change. On the other hand there was a huge problem in dealing with nuclear waste, which was also a source for making nuclear weaponry. On the whole I favoured the German approach of concentrating on renewables.

A woman in Milford rang to say that her husband was a lifelong Labour voter, but thinking of changing this time. On the other hand she was a lifelong Conservative supporter. Could I reassure her? Of course I could. At the end I wished her good luck with her forthcoming operation for which she was travelling to Glangwili in Carmarthen.

As I move around the county I’m constantly asked how the campaign is going. The people of Pembrokeshire are thinking, I say.